作　者：史本叶 齐瑞卿
关键词：高标准数字贸易规则；制度型开放；结构模型；福利效应
摘　要：

基于结构贸易模型拓展数字贸易分析框架，测算各国的高标准数字贸易规则深度与数字贸易政策性成本指标，量化分析2014-2023年高标准数字贸易规则引发的政策性成本下降所带来的贸易与福利效应，结果表明：高标准数字贸易规则能够提高中国的贸易量、福利水平及实际工资水平；中国现阶段的规则开放虽在较大程度上降低了贸易与福利的损失，但仍难以完全抵消全球数字贸易政策壁垒所带来的负面冲击；高标准数字贸易规则促使产业结构向数字化转型，对高技能劳动力需求显著增加，产生就业替代效应；通过模拟中国参与高标准区域贸易协定可以发现，不同协定带来的增长效应排序为RCEP、CPTPP、DEPA。在应对政策选择上，需要统筹自主开放与区域合作，以促进贸易、福利与工资的全面增长。

The Trade and Welfare Effects of High-standard Digital Trade Rules A Quantitative Analysis Based on a Structural Model
Shi Benye ，Qi Ruiqing（Jilin University）
Abstract Based on a structural trade model, this paper extends the analytical framework for digital trade, and constructs crosscountry indicators measuring the depth of high-standard digital trade rules (HSDTR) and digital trade policy costs, so as to quantitatively evaluate the trade and welfare effects stemming from the in policy-cost reductions brought about by HSDTR between 2014 and 2023. The results are as follows: HSDTR can raise China's trade volume, welfare, and real wage level. While China's current rule-based openness has substantially mitigated trade and welfare losses, it remains insufficient to fully offset the adverse impacts of global digital trade policy barriers. HSDTR also drive the digital transformation of industrial structure, and produce employment substitution effects by markedly boosting the demand for high-skilled labor. Simulations of China's accession to high-standard regional trade agreements reveal that the magnitude of growth effects ranks in the order of RCEP, CPTPP, and DEPA. From a policy perspective, China should strike a balance between autonomous opening-up and regional cooperation to achieve comprehensive growth in trade, welfare and wages.
Key words high-standard digital trade rules; institutional open-up; structural model; welfare effects

 

■ 作者简介 史本叶，吉林大学经济学院教授，吉林 长春 130012；齐瑞卿（通讯作者），吉林大学经济学院博士研究生。 

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