作　者：陈景华 毛开元
关键词：人口高质量发展；经济高质量发展；现代化人力资源；耦合协调
摘　要：

人口高质量发展与经济高质量发展相协调，是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的必然要求。通过厘清人口与经济两大系统协调发展的理论逻辑，采用耦合协调度模型及障碍度模型，探析中国人口高质量发展与经济高质量发展的协调性、时空特征及影响因素，结果发现：考察期内中国人口与经济两大系统高质量发展的协调性稳步上升，呈现出“经济高质量发展追赶→两系统协调共进→人口高质量发展不足”的阶段性特征；人口系统的素质与分布有力支撑了经济高质量发展，经济系统内部的协调与共享发展有效保障了人口高质量发展；两大系统的协调水平呈现“东高西低”“南高北低”的空间分布特征，东部地区多数省份处于中高级协调水平，但近年来北京和上海表现出人口高质量发展不能适配当地经济高质量发展需求的趋势；人口经济社会结构、人口增长水平以及人口自然结构是当前制约两大系统协调发展的主要障碍因子，相较于南方地区，北方地区受人口要素的制约作用更大。

 

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of the Coordination Between High-quality Population Development and High-quality Economic Development in China

Chen Jinghua（Shandong University of Finance and Economics）Mao Kaiyuan（Renmin University of China）
Abstract Coordinating high-quality population development with high-quality economic development is an inevitable requirement for building a modern socialist country in all respects. By sorting out the theoretical logic behind the coordinated development of the population and economic systems, this study adopts the coupling coordination degree model and obstacle degree model to analyze the coordination level, spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of China's high-quality population development and high-quality economic development. The findings are as follows: during the period under investigation, the high-quality development of the dual systems has become better coordinated, exhibiting a three-stage trajectory characterized by "the rapid advancement of high-quality economic development→parallel coordinated progress of the two systems→high-quality population development losing its initial push". The quality and spatial distribution of the population system have strongly promoted high-quality economic development, while coordinated and shared development of the economic system have effectively safeguarded high-quality population development. The coordination of the two systems presents a spatial pattern of "higher in the east and south, and lower in the west and north", with most eastern provinces reaching a medium-to-high level of coordination. However, the high-quality population development in Beijing and Shanghai in recent years has failed to keep pace with the local demand for high-quality economic development. The primary obstacle factors restricting the coordinated development of the two systems at present include population-economic-social structure, population growth level and population natural structure. The northern regions are subject to greater constraints from population-related factors compared with the southern regions.
Key words high-quality population development; high-quality economic development; modern human resources; coupling coordination

 

■ 作者简介 陈景华，山东财经大学经济学院教授，山东 济南 250014；毛开元（通讯作者），中国人民大学应用经济学院博士研究生，北京 100872。 

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