作　者：伍麟 王典
关键词：国家认同；机器学习；因果发现；国家实力；媒介信息；政治信任
摘　要：

国家认同感是国家统一与社会稳定的心理基石，是民族复兴的精神纽带。通过可解释机器学习模型与基于数据驱动的因果发现方法，可以得出国家综合实力感知、受教育年限、媒介接触、政治信任等构成影响国家认同感的核心因素。这些核心影响因素与国家认同感之间普遍存在显著的非线性关联，呈现出阈值效应、边际递减等复杂动态特征，体现了从传统叙事逐渐转向更注重绩效合法性的、偏理性的现代国家认同模式。以综合实力支撑“强大中国”的整体具象化认知，正在成为塑造“我的祖国”这一认同感的关键依托。社会制度、经济收入、媒介信息、政治信任等因素，通过个体对治理能力与绩效回应的满意评价，持续传递出关于国家发展成就与集体历史记忆等内容，能增强公众对党和政府的向心力，建构一种稳定且充满情感的整体图式，由此国家认同感便获得了有力的制度性支撑与强化。

 

On the Formation and Reinforcement of National Identity

——An Interpretation in Computational Social Science Based on Machine Learning

Wu Lin, Wang Dian

(Wuhan University）

Abstract  National identity serves as the psychological cornerstone for social stability and national unity, as well as a spiritual bond for national rejuvenation. Based on interpretable machine learning and data-driven causal discovery methods, this study identifies perceived national strength, education level, media exposure, and political trust as the primary drivers of national identity. These determinants exhibit significant non-linear associations, characterized by notable threshold effects and diminishing marginal effects, representing a paradigm shift from traditional narrative-based identity toward a rational modern one that places greater emphasis on performance legitimacy. The tangible overall cognition of a "powerful China" supported by comprehensive national strength has become the fundamental bedrock for constructing the emotional identity of "my country". Factors such as social systems, income, media information and political trust, through public satisfaction with governance capacity and performance, will continuously convey perceptions of national achievements and collective historical memories, strengthening social cohesion toward the Party and the government and fostering a stable emotional cognitive schema. In this way, national identity acquires robust institutional underpinning and continuous consolidation.

Key words  national identity; machine learning; causal discovery; national strength; media information; political trust

 

■ 作者简介  伍麟，武汉大学社会学院教授，湖北 武汉 420072；王典，武汉大学社会学院博士研究生。

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