作　者：康蕊
关键词：银发经济；产业；就业；投入产出表
摘　要：

发展银发经济不仅有利于应对人口老龄化的挑战，也是激发市场活力和增加就业的重要抓手。在编制包含银发经济投入产出表的基础上，测算银发经济的产业和就业增长效应，研究发现：（1）2013-2023年，银发经济能够显著带动产业和就业增长且效应不断增强；2023年，纯银发经济法人单位数和就业人员占国民经济整体的6.47%、6.13%；银发经济还对其他部门产生带动作用，共产生310.50万个法人单位，带动3516.98万人就业。（2）预测2035年银发经济所带动的产业和就业占比将增加至10.70%、10.20%，产生578.82万个法人单位，带动5376.64万人就业。（3）银发服务业是银发经济发展的重要引擎，产业占国民经济整体的6.53%，但就业仅占3.46%。（4）全国31个省份之间的差异较大，东部和部分中部地区是银发经济产业和就业增长的主要力量。应大力发展银发经济以释放其产业和就业增长效应，构建紧密的产业关联从而带动其他相关行业的产业和就业增长，在银发服务业等部门以产业带动就业，并着力解决区域发展不均衡问题。

 

A Study on the Measurement of Industrial and Employment Growth Effects of the Silver Economy

——An Analytical Framework Based on Input-output Table

Kang Rui

(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Abstract  Developing the silver economy helps tackle population aging, stimulate market vitality, and expand employment. On the basis of compiling an input-output table for the silver economy, this paper quantifies its effects on industrial and employment growth. The results reveal that: First, from 2013 to 2023, the silver economy exerted prominent and increasingly strengthening industrial and employment growth. In 2023, legal entities and employees in the pure silver economy accounted for 6.47% and 6.13% of the national economy respectively. Meanwhile, the silver economy generated spillover effects in driving other industrial sectors, creating 3.105 million legal entities and supporting 35.1698 million jobs. Second, projections indicate that by 2035, the proportion of industries and employment driven by the silver economy will increase to 10.70% and 10.20% respectively, generating 5.7882 million legal entities and 53.7664 million jobs. Third, the silver service industry is an important engine for the development of the silver economy, accounting for 6.53% of the overall national economy but only 3.46% of total employment. Forth, significant regional disparities exist across China's 31 provinces, with the eastern and some central regions serving as primary contributors to industrial and employment growth within the silver economy. Accordingly, efforts should be made to vigorously develop the silver economy to unleash its growth potential in industries and employment, by establishing close industrial linkages to drive the growth of other related industries, promoting employment via industrial development in silver service sectors, and tackling regional development imbalances.

Key words  the silver economy; industry; employment; input-output table

 

■ 作者简介  康蕊，中国社会科学院中国式现代化研究院助理研究员，北京100006。

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