作　者：李永友 袁义舟
关键词：税收征管；家庭消费；支出预期
摘　要：

内需不足是我国当前经济面临的重要问题。为探讨造成内需不足的原因，基于手工整理的各省税务局发布土地增值税清算管理文件，通过构造交叠双重差分模型，研究支出预期对家庭消费行为的影响，从预期角度对这一问题作出探究，可发现：在发布土地增值税清算管理文件的省份，无房家庭的消费相比于未发布土地增值税清算管理文件省份的所有家庭，在文件发布后出现了显著下降。随后的机制分析证实，发布土地增值税清算管理文件省份的无房家庭出现消费显著下降的原因，实乃税务局加强土地增值税征管带来了房价上涨，使无房家庭产生了未来购房支出增加的预期，从而在无房家庭出现了显著更强的预防性储蓄动机。在扩大内需的政策选择上，并非是要弱化税收征管，关键是厘清支出预期对家庭消费的影响，扩大内需的政策优化应在降低家庭支出增加的预期上下功夫，比如增加公共服务支出、完善社会保障体系等。

 

Tax Enforcement, Expenditure Expectations and Heterogeneous Household Consumption Responses

Li Yongyou，Yuan Yizhou

(Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics)

Abstract  Insufficient domestic demand is currently a prominent challenge confronting China's economy. To explore the underlying causes, this paper constructs a staggered difference-in-differences model based on a manually collected dataset on land appreciation tax (LAT) liquidation regulatory documents released by provincial tax authorities, to examine the effect of expenditure expectations on household consumption behaviors from the perspective of expectations. The findings reveal that consumption of housing-free households decreased significantly in provinces with such regulatory release compared with households in other provinces. Mechanism analysis further verifies that their consumption reduction is attributable to strengthened LAT enforcement, which drove up housing prices and raised their expectations of higher future expenditures on housing, thereby generating a significantly stronger precautionary saving motive. To expand domestic demand does not mean to relax tax regulation. Instead, the key is to clarify the impact of expenditure expectations on household consumption. Policy optimization for demand expansion should focus on alleviating households' expectations of rising future expenditures, through measures including increasing public service expenditure and improving the social security system.

Key words  tax enforcement; household consumption; expenditure expectations

 

■ 作者简介  李永友，浙江财经大学财政与税务学院教授，浙江 杭州 310018；袁义舟（通讯作者），浙江财经大学—中国社会科学院大学浙江研究院博士研究生。

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