作　者：苗翠芬
关键词：双边政治关系；反倾销反补贴调查；议题联结；制度性联结
摘　要：

基于2002-2019 年全球44 个经济体对中国96 类产品发起的反倾销反补贴调查数据，系统考察双边政治关系对反倾销反补贴调查的影响及异质性效应，可发现：良好的双边政治关系能显著降低中国产品遭受反倾销反补贴调查的概率和数量，其影响机制主要通过政治目标联结路径下的政治互信机制、制度性联结路径下的规则认同机制得以实现。中国与非美国盟友、低否决点体制经济体的双边政治关系改善对反倾销反补贴的抑制效应，显著强于与美国盟友、高否决点体制经济体的双边政治关系改善所产生的效应。在产品属性维度，双边政治关系对劳动密集型产品遭受反倾销反补贴调查的抑制效应更为显著。要增进双边政治关系、强化规则认同机制、提升贸易摩擦应对效能，以有效减少中国产品遭受的反倾销反补贴调查，促进对外贸易高质量发展。

 

The Impact of Bilateral Political Relations on Anti-dumping and Countervailing Investigations

Miao Cuifen（Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）

Abstract Based on data on anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) investigations initiated by 44 economies worldwide against 96 categories of Chinese products during 2002-2019, this study systematically examines the impact of bilateral political relations on AD/CVD investigations and the associated heterogeneous effects. It is found that: sound bilateral political relations significantly reduce both the likelihood and incidence of AD/CVD investigations against Chinese products, with the underlying transmission mechanisms primarily realized through the political mutual trust cultivated via political objective alignment and the rule recognition facilitated by institutional compatibility. The dampening effect of improved bilateral political relations with non-U. S. allies and low-veto-point institutional economies on AD/CVD investigations is significantly stronger than that achieved through enhanced relations with U.S. allies and high-veto-point institution‐ al economies. In terms of product attributes, bilateral political relations exert a more pronounced inhibitory effect on AD/CVD investigations against labor-intensive products. To effectively reduce AD/CVD investigations against Chinese products and promote the high-quality development of China's foreign trade, it is imperative to enhance bilateral political relations, strengthen the rule recognition mechanism and improve the effectiveness of responses to trade frictions.

Key words bilateral political relations; anti-dumping and countervailing investigations; issue linkage; institutional compatibility

 

■作者简介 苗翠芬，中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院、中国社会科学院亚太经济合作组织与东亚合作研究中心助理研究员，北京 100007。

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